Medium-Long Term Future

In public debates the eye is usually cast on the past, present or short-term future. Long-term future is left, instead, to science-fiction writers or to very expensive research, which is a prerogative of top-ranking economic, political or military hierarchies. Through this brief question-answer essay I would like to try and open people’s mental windows on medium and long-term future. Enjoy the reading; obviously everyone will then make their own contribution…


Photo: Daniel R. Westergren - National Geographic

1) Will there be enough energy for everyone?

No doubt about it. Thanks to the existing technology and renewable energy like biomass, solar and wind power, sea waves and high altitude water basins, today producing energy for 20 billions human beings would be viable. Hydrogen engines will enable to build vehicles, aircrafts and spaceships much more powerful than the existing ones.

2) Who will do the hardest work?

Robots will become increasingly sophisticated and nobody will any longer need to clean railway station toilets, to do autopsies or to dismantle fearful nuclear plants.


Photo: Ap

3) I deeply fear global catastrophes, meteorites or apocalyptic eruptions. How will we manage to save our lives?

Through prevention and timely intervention. The best resources will be allocated for research, adequate actions will be taken and armies will gradually become international first aid forces.

4) Will we all live in megalopolis, one on top of the other?

The model of megalopolis is already in a critical position. Factories and services are part of the first stage of the industrial revolution which comes before the technology revolution. Thanks to fast telecommunication, mass air transport and growing automation, a new model of hyper technological towns, provided with all comforts and services, will in time develop. This means, tailor-made units of 10-15 or maximum 20 thousand inhabitants, situated in green and wonderful natural places or expressly built with fountains, waterfalls, spas, woods, gardens, hills, nice views, meeting places and landscapes.

5) Will we all eat pills or genetically modified food?

Food does not just mean nourishment but also fashion, health, business, art and culture. Natural, organic, controlled, fresh, vegetable or 100% guaranteed food will be steadily improved. Cattle and pork breeding will lose their leading role.

6) Will there be Nazi or Reagan style superior races and genetic selections?

No, there won’t. Yet, scientific advancement will allow to prevent plenty of illnesses and ailments. For instance, thanks to a very simple test, a couple can today learn their genetic compatibility and choose to adopt a child instead of conceiving it and maybe later having to abort during the pregnancy.

7) Will we live forever?

Today average life-expectancy is 80 years and soon it will be more then 100. Yet, it won’t be surprising if, maybe tomorrow, in the morning newspaper, we happen to read that a weird scientist has just discovered a hormone which stimulates a continuous cell regeneration thus slowing down the ageing process forever, as in 30-year-old organisms.


Photo: Internet

8) How will be issue of couples be dealt with? Will we be deemed to face divorces and separations forever?

No, not at all. On the contrary, we’ll have enough time to try again and again until we find the right person to share eternity with. That is also valid as a life-style and for reference human groups. Maybe we will move from one living place to another until we find the one that fits us best. And who knows? We may find out that sometimes changing is better.

9) And what about sons, childhood, children and school?

In wealthier societies children are often seen as a limitation or a huge responsibility…Maybe, paradoxically, the best solution ever still comes from some ancient societies. Because of the very high mortality rate of parents, after the weaning, 5/6-year-old children would go and live together under the guidance of slightly older teachers (10-13 years old) who in turn lived together under the guidance of 17/20-year-old teachers. Therefore, I think that a very similar system will be implemented, with all the adjustments to fit for our time. Thus, parents will no longer be expected to take care of their children until their coming of age but only until the beginning of the primary school.

10) Will the elders be abandoned in litter boxes?

No, they won’t since people will live incredibly longer. Surely more than 700-800 years. Perhaps people will live more than 1000 years without any major problems. The whole issue of old age will need revising: we are talking about an automated society which will provide each individual with the utmost comfort and happiness.

11) What about the animals? And the environment? And the ecosystem?

Once, misfits were considered beings without a soul or rights. Now we are all human beings with reason and conscience. Yet, animals still don’t have any rights even though scientifically we all know that not only do they have a soul but also an intelligence which is often superior to that of human beings. Human beings are animals as well. We are apes belonging to the order of primates. We have developed specific skills related to the building and use of some instruments in order to fulfil our psycho-physical aptitudes or existential needs. Nevertheless, each animal species has its own skills and needs. Whales, for instance, can sing very well and communicate over the oceans without mobile phones. Once we used to fight against nature, whereas we have recently moved to a stage in which we search for a harmonious contact with the environment. In a very short time we’ll be part of it again with tasks and responsibilities totally different from those originally belonging to our species. We will, therefore, play a role suitable for our new skills.


Photo: Apollo 17 - Nasa

12) Will we travel through the universe? And what about galaxies, stars and planets?

I think that by the end of this century the first spaceships will set out to “colonise” the universe whereas the “colonisation” of the solar system already began in the last century.


Photo: Nasa - Reuters

13) Why are there wars and why do we kill one another? Will there be wars even in the future?

No, not at all. Wars are strictly linked to the need of survival and reproduction. In a few years’ time, thanks to the steady increase of the average age and per capita wealth, nobody will any longer need to prevail or kill in order to survive or reproduce. Sport contests won’t aim at the defeat of the enemies anymore. The one that manages to give the biggest pleasure to others, and not the deepest suffering, will be bound to win. The best pizza, the most touching poem, the most brilliant invention. Already nowadays, Nobel prize winners or Guinness record holders are much more interesting than the Olympic games or boxing matches. People anxiously await the coming out of their idols’ latest songs rather than the boring declarations of strength and power of old-fashioned political leaders.


Photo: Ap

14) What forms of government will be adopted?

Nowadays in the UE, the old idea of an US-style presidential democracy has already been left behind which, in turn, had overcome the previous concept of an enlighted monarch-dictator. Single individuals will no longer decide for everyone or majorities won’t rule over minorities anymore. Decisions will be taken unanimously by different councils that will interact to deal with issues of professional competence or territorial representation.

15) I’m afraid we’ll make a blunder….

You’re right. We all know that the hungry ones dream of satiety, the weary ones dream of some rest, the lazy bones dream of agility, the victims of persecution dream of revenge and the clever ones dream of spontaneity. We’ll surely keep on wandering from one compensation to another. There’s no doubt we’ll make many other mistakes. But don’t worry. Nobody will any longer be obliged to do the same things forever. You’ll live many years, many more than you can ever think of and thus you too will have time to gain experience and wisdom and to achieve all that you wish and like: even long, very long term personal plans, full of blunders, of course.

16) But what have overpopulation and poverty to do with all this?

Today, in 2005, overpopulation and poverty are the major problems affecting mankind. For instance, the USA have been obliged to invade Iraq to get the biggest oil sources of the planet and to avoid that the growing demand from China, India and other emerging countries might lead to an uncontrolled price increase, thus spoiling American economy, based on avio fuel, that is, fuel used for civil and military transportation.

17) Are you referring to raw materials and vital space?

Yes, I am. Geopolitically speaking, the most valuable resources are raw materials and vital space. A growing population makes the average vital space for each inhabitant (cultivable and habitable land) decrease along with the available quota of raw materials and services (food, metals, power, water, wood, beaches, train seats, ski-runs…). A growing population also makes the average “wealth” fall, therefore everyone tries to make the most of it through wild competition, wars, conflicts, violence, exploitation, abuses and discrimination.

18) What causes overpopulation?

At the end of the last century the main cause of overpopulation was thought to be the increasing enrichment of peoples. Consequently these peoples were doomed to be abandoned to extreme poverty. Yet, nowadays, we know for sure that we have to rescue them from poverty as quickly as we can. Wealthy nations have by now reached a balance between birth- and death rates, whereas poorer countries are still going through a population boom. If poverty were eliminated by the year 2010, in the middle-long-term the population would level off 6 billions. If it were eliminated by 2015, it would level off 9 billions and by 2020, 15 billions. Yet it’s not that hard to understand that, with 6 billion people, we are living a world war-like situation to gain as many resources as we can. With another increase of 100 million people per year, by the years 2012-2013 (7.5 billions of inhabitants) more and more new conflict will arise and we will unawares go beyond the point of no return.


Photo: Toru Yamanaka - Ansa

19) How will we then manage to be happy? Is overpopulation the limit of human happiness?

That’s the point: either poverty is eliminated by 2009, by 2010 at the latest, by stopping the demographic growth or the pleasant future that we’ve been talking about will remain in our dreams for some years. Then, there will be no more dreams because nobody will be there to dream any longer.